How efficient is the sports betting market?

"I don’t try to jump over 7-foot hurdles: I look for 1-foot hurdles that I can step over."
-Warren Buffett

Once again, the guy who beat the stock market to the tune of Billions has good advice for those looking to beat the sports betting market.

Anyone who has taken a basic finance course is aware of the efficient market hypothesis so I won't bore anyone with a recap. I'll just say that most lines the average person bets into are efficient. The few lines that books float out there that are inefficient represent the opportunity for a bettor to make a positive expected value (EV) bet and make money consistently betting them.

In financial markets the higher the amount of trading volume the more efficient the market. This is quite often the opposite in sports betting and it's an important point to remember to make yourself a winning bettor. More action in the sports betting market means more public money which means more square money. The number of sharps is never going to really fluctuate, they will always be there, waiting patiently to hit their spots. Take the Super Bowl as an example, it seems like everyone in America bets on something during the SB, therefore books don't have to make the lines very sharp at all.

Regular season MLB or NHL games on the other hand don't get that much public action and you can generally count on them being much sharper on average. Not to say you can't make money betting regualr season MLB or NHL games because we do.

The point is, if you are struggling to win money, one thing to consider is what type of lines you are betting into and how often. An amateur sports bettor going head to head with professional odds makers on multiple MLB/NHL/NBA games a day is in trouble even before you take the juice into consideration.

Just a quick thought on the subject, I didn't want to turn it into a long winded dissertation on efficient market theory but I would be happy to go into greater detail with anyone who is interested. Just shoot me a line.

Best of luck in whatever you may play!